Can CCS meet Europe’s climate targets? Three projects beset with problems suggest not

The European Union is betting connected c seizure and retention (CCS) to decarbonise dense business emitters. 

The bloc has group eager capacity targets to that end: 50 cardinal tonnes of CO2 annually by 2030, rising to 280 cardinal tonnes successful 2040. But this will require a immense scaling up. 

CCS involves capturing CO2 from business emitters aliases powerfulness factories, liquefying it, and transporting nan CO2 via pipeline, trucks aliases ships earlier storing it underground successful depleted lipid aliases state reservoirs aliases saline aquifers. 

Today, location are only 5 operational CCS projects successful Europe, capturing a full of2.7 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) each year. Of this,1.7 MtCO2 (63 per cent of nan total) is for earthy state processing successful Norway, which is extracurricular of nan EU.

So nan strategy requires building a analyzable infrastructure web from scratch astatine important cost. The European Commission has said Europe mightiness request 19,000 km of CO2 pipelines by 2050 to meet this target. 

These plans could costs taxpayers up to €140 cardinal by 2050, according to nan Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

But a associated investigation by respective European newsrooms shows that recurring problems pinch precocious costs and method issues are already threatening nan occurrence of 3 awesome CO2 carrier and retention projects receiving EU support. 

EU’s CCS-heavy ambiance strategy thrown into doubt

This questions nan feasibility of nan existent EU ambiance strategy which heavy relies connected c seizure and storage, a exertion favoured by oil and state companies but which has mostly historically grounded to meet targets. 

As of 2023, governments and corporations had spent complete $83 cardinal (€73bn) connected CCS projects globally, according to Bloomberg. But that aforesaid year, nan exertion only captured astir 0.1 per cent of world emissions. 

For Europe to scope its targets, capacity will request to grow dramatically. In its astir caller round, 40 per cent of Emissions Trading System (ETS) revenues to nan Innovation Fund were awarded to c seizure retention and utilisation projects. The ETS is simply a awesome backing programme for low-carbon exertion financed by nan bloc’s cap-and-trade strategy for greenhouse state emissions.

This “one-track” attraction could mean different decarbonisation devices - specified arsenic expanding cleanable power and improving power ratio - are perchance being sidelined, according to a report by nan World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). 

One illustration is cement, wherever Innovation Fund grants successful each but 1 lawsuit support CCS to trim emissions, alternatively than investigating intends to trim CO2 successful nan business process directly. 

As portion of a associated investigation by IRPI, Follow nan Money, L’Humanite and Mondiaal Nieuws, we looked astatine 3 projects supported by nan EU. 

The projects analysed - Northern Lights successful Norway, Pycasso successful France, and Callisto successful France and Italy - were only 3 of 14 projects selected by nan European Commission arsenic Projects of Common Interests (PCIs), but they constituent to issues facing efforts to standard CCS crossed nan continent. 

CCS projects hampered by precocious costs and unrealistic targets

Northern Lights successful Norway, which expects to commencement operating this year, is tally by 3 fossil substance companies: Total Energies from France, UK-headquartered Shell, and Equinor, which is mostly owned by nan Norwegian state.

It plans to shop 1.5 cardinal tonnes of emissions wrong a fewer years, starting pinch emissions from fertiliser shaper Yara, Danish power institution Orsted and cement institution Heidelberg Materials. 

But an investigation published successful Follow nan Money shows nan task will look prohibitive costs and shipping capacity issues. 

Northern Lights will trust connected 2 specially designed ships which will cod and carrier liquefied CO2 captured by polluters successful Denmark, nan Netherlands and Norway. It will past beryllium shipped to nan larboard successful Øygarden – located westbound of nan metropolis of Bergen – and pumped via a 100-kilometre pipeline into geological reservoirs nether nan seabed successful nan North Sea, wherever it is intended to beryllium stored permanently. 

Transporting and storing 1 tonne of CO2 nether shape 1 of nan Northern Lights task would person an mean costs of $145 (€128), according to information analytics institution Wood Mackenzie. 

In summation to these expenses, location is nan costs of capturing CO2 on-site, which differs by industry. Estimates from nan International Energy Agency (IEA) propose mean costs per tonne of $30 (€27) for ammonia, a compound chiefly utilized successful fertiliser production. 

Under these estimates, Yara mightiness person to salary betwixt $140 to $202 cardinal (€123 to €178 million) each twelvemonth to scope its targets to trim only a proportionality of emissions from 1 site. That’s a important magnitude for a institution that posted $229 cardinal earnings earlier interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization successful Europe past year.

Northern Lights faces different challenges. The task will trust connected ships to carrier CO2, but specialised boats are required to carrier CO2, and pinch only 2 specified ships built and available, nan task will apt struggle to meet its ain targets. Each vessel tin only transportation 8,000 tonnes of CO2 per trip.

Under existing contracts, Northern Lights will person 1.63 cardinal tonnes each twelvemonth to store. 

Northern Lights has now commissioned 2 further liquefied CO2 ships which are owed to beryllium completed successful 2026, though it is not clear erstwhile they will commencement transporting emissions. Even pinch each 4 ships successful service, much will beryllium needed soon arsenic nan task expands, nan investigation found. Any delays from bad upwind aliases method difficulties pinch ships will further jeopardise nan project’s expertise to meet targets. 

Transporting CO2 either by vessel aliases pipeline raises further issues. Unlike earthy gas, CO2 becomes corrosive erstwhile mixed pinch water. The ship’s retention tanks request to beryllium cleaned pinch barren CO2 gases to debar immoderate contamination pinch humid air, each clip aft unloading. 

Italian task besides faces 'prohibitive costs'

Another project, Callisto, which intends to carrier CO2 from business emitters successful France to a retention tract disconnected Italy’s Adriatic coast, faces akin issues. 

Callisto, a associated task by Italian power multinational Eni, infrastructure institution Snam and Air Liquide, a French institution providing lipid and state services, intends to create nan largest multimodal c seizure and retention web successful nan Mediterranean.

The task seeks to create a complete proviso concatenation for nan capture, carrier and retention of c successful southwestern Europe.

But while Callisto plans to carrier CO2 from business clients successful Italy via pipeline, emissions from French companies will beryllium transported via vessel from southeastern France circumventing nan Italian peninsula to nan Adriatic, Irpi media reported. 

The building and attraction of dedicated infrastructures, specified arsenic pipelines and ships, on pinch carrier and seizure costs, correspond a important investment. 

The existent value paid by polluters nether nan Emissions Trading System (ETS) is astir €80 per tonne, excessively debased to warrant a business lawsuit for companies to salary for CCS. "Even pinch adjacent portion seizure costs, carrier from very distant sources would person prohibitive costs, difficult to reconcile pinch nan existent values ​​of ETS certificates," Roberto Bencini, an master connected CCS for nan European Commission, told IRPI media. 

ETS prices are not conscionable debased but besides volatile, meaning carrier costs could quickly make retention costs prohibitive, putting nan profitability of projects astatine risk. 

“The problem is much truthful that nan value is volatile. So nary one's going to make an finance for 15 years unless they person immoderate shape of a guarantee of what nan value is going to be,” says Eadbhard Pernot, Secretary-General of Zero Emissions Platform (ZEP) initiative, which  includes galore lipid and state companies progressive successful European CCS projects. 

Those projects which person gone up trust connected c contracts for quality - agreements wherever a authorities contracts pinch a institution to guarantee a circumstantial c value complete a group play for a low-carbon task - says Pernot. 

Local guidance to CCS projects

Finally, France’s Pycasso task shows a different, but arsenic pressing rumor for CCS infrastructure. 

By storing CO2 person to business emitters, Pycasso pursued a strategy that could person lowered costs. But nan task was abandoned past twelvemonth because of section opposition: arsenic 1 MP told L’Humanite, Pycasso would person threatened nan 1,700 jobs astatine nan existing state section successful Lacq, while creating only astir 80 caller jobs.

For CCS advocates, nan economical challenges facing CCS are a motion it should person much nationalist money. “We are trying to get a caller exertion up and moving connected a commercialized scale. And location are risks present which nan backstage assemblage will astir apt not take, unless governments work together to supply immoderate benignant of de-risking support,” says Chris Davies, caput of CCS Europe. 

But critics reason Europe risks betting connected CCS arsenic a occurrence solution astatine nan disbursal of harder choices astir assets usage and changing patterns successful industrialisation. 

“It’s an illustration of really we are relying supra each connected exertion to trim emissions. That can’t beryllium nan only solution. It tin beryllium portion of nan packet, but it should not person nan accent it is receiving correct now,” Maury says.

With issues astir economical viability and feasibility issues, immoderate fearfulness nan attraction connected CCS could distract from meaningful ambiance action.

“The biggest consequence pinch CCS is we discarded a decade and nevertheless galore billions of euros not doing ambiance action that we cognize would work,” Rachel Kennerley of nan Center for International Environmental Law told Euronews Green. 

Additional reporting from Carlotta Indiano, Beatrice Cambarau, Bart Grugeon Plana, David Haas, Jule Zentek, Simon Guichard.

This article was supported by Journalismfund Europe.