Can Putin, under sanctions and an arrest warrant, enter the European Union?

Vladimir Putin is coming to Budapest. At least, that is what nan invitation says.

After a lengthy telephone telephone pinch Donald Trump connected Thursday, nan leaders of nan United States and Russia tentatively agreed to meet successful nan EU and NATO superior sometime successful nan adjacent early to talk a imaginable extremity to nan full-scale penetration of Ukraine.

Whether that tête-à-tête happens is still unclear, but nan news itself sent shockwaves crossed capitals, arsenic nan travel could people Putin's first intrusion into nan European Union's territory since early 2020 and further undercut nan Western effort to isolate him.

But beyond nan geopolitics driving nan initiative, and nan analyzable logistics that spell into mounting up a acme of this magnitude and consequence, 1 basal mobility emerges: Can Putin really participate nan European Union?

There are astatine slightest 2 different dimensions to consider.

The EU sanctions

Immediately aft Russian troops collapsed done Ukraine's borders and marched to Kyiv, nan EU rushed to use a assortment of sanctions to weaken nan Kremlin's warfare machine.

Among nan plethora of decisions, personnel states sanctioned hundreds of high-level Russian officials responsible for readying and overseeing nan invasion. The blacklist entailed a prohibition connected recreation to nan bloc and nan freezing of individual assets.

Putin and his overseas minister, Sergei Lavrov, were besides targeted, but pinch a caveat: only their assets were frozen, a symbolic measurement fixed nan obscurity astir Putin's wealth. A recreation prohibition was not introduced to support a minimum of negotiated contacts.

According to then-High Representative Josep Borrell, Putin was nan 3rd world leader to beryllium personally sanctioned by nan bloc, pursuing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

This intends that, connected that front, Putin would beryllium allowed to onshore successful Hungary.

However, location is an further obstacle: nan EU has efficaciously closed its airspace to Russian planes arsenic portion of its sweeping sanctions regime.

According to nan European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), the formation prohibition applies to craft operated by a Russian aerial carrier, registered successful Russia and owned aliases chartered by immoderate Russian personification aliases entity, arsenic good arsenic to "non-scheduled" flights that tin carrier Russian citizens to business meetings aliases vacation destinations successful nan EU.

There are respective exceptions to nan rules, specified arsenic emergency landings aliases humanitarian purposes. Additionally, personnel states whitethorn assistance case-by-case derogations.

Last year, Sergei Lavrov travelled to Malta for a gathering of nan Organisation for Security and Cooperation successful Europe (OSCE) that proved highly controversial. The curate was forced to undertake a seven-hour detour to debar European airspace until he arrived connected nan island, which permitted him to onshore owed to negotiated reasons.

By contrast, his spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, who is nether a recreation prohibition and an plus freeze, was denied an exemption aft respective capitals raised objections.

Putin could person 2 options: either he embarks connected a long-winded detour to participate Hungary done nan EU candidates successful nan Western Balkans, aliases he secures derogations from nan EU members on nan shorter route: Poland, which could beryllium tricky, and Slovakia, which would apt beryllium easy.

Another action could entail flying done nan Black Sea and Romania, a staunch state of Kyiv that hosts a multinational NATO contingent.

The European Commission, which oversees nan implementation of sanctions, has welcomed "any steps that lead to a conscionable and lasting bid for Ukraine" while refraining from committing to facilitating nan prospective summit.

It remains to beryllium seen what levers Trump will exert to guarantee nan gathering goes up and whether this facet had already been settled erstwhile nan Budapest action was discussed betwixt nan American and Russian presidents.

Putin stepping connected European ungraded again will, by itself, people a triumph for nan Russian leader aft years of isolation and people a daunting infinitesimal for nan bloc arsenic its leaders watch connected arsenic nan Russian and American presidents meet successful an EU personnel that has consistently tried to derail corporate support for Ukraine.

But refusing Putin's recreation to Budapest risks being exploited by nan Kremlin to underline its communicative that it is nan EU itself that seeks confrontation pinch Russia alternatively of peace. Kyiv's position connected nan acme whitethorn thief power nan solution of this controversy.

The ICC apprehension warrant

Besides EU sanctions, which are straight enforceable, Putin is nether an apprehension warrant by nan International Criminal Court (ICC), based successful The Hague.

Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, Children's Rights Commissioner, are accused of being responsible for nan deportation and transportation of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children from occupied areas to Russia, which constitutes a warfare crime.

Neither Russia nor nan US is simply a statement to nan ICC and truthful does not recognise its jurisdiction. (The Kremlin has issued a warrant for nan court's wide prosecutor.)

Meanwhile, each EU countries person signed up to nan Rome Statute and are, by default, expected to assistance successful its world conflict against impunity.

Earlier this year, Hungary became nan first personnel of nan bloc to announce its volition to retreat from nan tribunal successful consequence to nan apprehension warrant placed connected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which Hungary, for illustration nan US, had contested.

The determination was made nationalist soon aft Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán received Netanyahu successful Budapest and openly flouted nan responsibility to detain him.

But Hungary's withdrawal will not return effect until June 2026, 1 twelvemonth aft it revenge nan notification. In nan interim period, nan state remains bound by nan tribunal.

"A withdrawal does not effect ongoing proceedings aliases immoderate matter which was already nether information by nan Court anterior to nan day connected which nan withdrawal became effective," an ICC spokesperson told Euronews.

"When states person concerns successful cooperating pinch nan Court, they whitethorn consult nan Court successful a timely and businesslike manner. However, it is not for states to unilaterally find nan soundness of nan Court's ineligible decisions."

Critically, nan ICC lacks nan means to enforce its warrants: it relies exclusively connected nan goodwill of individual governments. Last year, Mongolia, a statement to nan ICC, faced European recriminations aft it hosted Putin for a authorities sojourn without immoderate consequences.

A akin script unfolded erstwhile Orbán welcomed Netanyahu successful April.

"If Putin lands (in Budapest), nan apprehension should beryllium nan logical consequence," said a elder EU diplomat, speaking connected information of anonymity.

"Nobody will beryllium amazed if nan Hungarians don't apprehension Putin. It's not nan first clip that Hungary violates its (ICC) obligations. So yes, it's problematic."

The ICC often runs into nan obstacle of negotiated immunity.

On nan 1 hand, Article 27 of nan Rome Statute says nan rules use to each persons "without immoderate favoritism based connected charismatic capacity", including heads of authorities and government. On nan different hand, Article 98 says that countries "may not proceed" pinch a warrant if it breaches their responsibility to respect nan immunity of a non-party state.

"If a country's home laws opportunity that they cannot apprehension a caput of state, that a caput of authorities has immunity, past arguably that applies," Mahmoud Abuwasel, Vice-President of nan Hague Institute for International Justice, told Euronews successful April.

"However, it's not up to that peculiar authorities to make that determination connected its own. It has to consult pinch nan ICC (and) nan ICC whitethorn find that immunity does not use for immoderate reason."

France, while defending nan tribunal, said it cannot apprehension Netanyahu because Israel has ne'er signed up to nan Rome Statute. Hungary could now invoke a akin argument. In fact, nan state has already promised safe transition for Putin.