Earthquake data could hold the key to predicting Mount Etna’s next eruption, study finds

Published on 25/10/2025 - 7:00 GMT+2

Mount Etna is 1 of nan world’s astir progressive volcanoes. Located connected nan eastbound seashore of Sicily, it erupts aggregate times per twelvemonth - astir precocious successful June this year.

While it is somewhat imaginable to foretell eruptions, a caller study publishedin Science Advances proposes a caller prediction method that analyses earthquake patterns. It could let for earlier and amended preparedness.

How to foretell volcanoes

Scientists presently show Mount Etna by looking astatine seismic, geological, geophysical, and geochemical data, particularly really magma moves successful nan precocious crust. From this, they are capable to get a consciousness of whether nan volcano will erupt shortly, arsenic erstwhile magma erupts connected nan surface, it becomes lava. But oftentimes, there’s not a batch of clip betwixt an alert and aneruption.

This caller study offers a different paradigm: looking astatine earthquakepatterns and magma movements connected a deeper level.

Earthquakes and volcanoes are often interconnected. Earthquakes hap on tectonic sheet boundaries, and Mt. Etna is situated correct astatine nan gathering constituent of nan African and European tectonic plates. Small and large earthquakes impact nan volcano’s magma movement, perchance influencing nan eruption.

A caller method

The study, conducted by researchers National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, analysed 2 decades' worthy of earthquake information from Mount Etna.

Researchers honed successful connected nan “b value,” which fundamentally assesses nan proportionality of mini to ample earthquakes. They recovered a relationship betwixt volcanic activity and b value: nan ratio changed arsenic nan magma roseate done nan crust. By plotting nan “b value” complete time, they could place immoderate early signs of volcanic eruption.

“Our results show that monitoring nan b worth complete clip offers a valuable opportunity to way magma movements from heavy to shallow portions of nan plumbing strategy and could beryllium integrated into Etna’s multiparametric surveillance strategy to amended nan appraisal of impending eruptions,” nan authors write.

Avoiding catastrophe

Earlier and much meticulous prediction is important for nan communities surrounding Etna. According toNASA, astir one-third of Sicily’spopulation lives on nan slopes of nan volcano. June’s eruption saw ash plumes of 6.5 kilometres.

The authors spot this caller method arsenic a measurement to debar catastrophe, some astatine Mount Etna and different akin volcanoes.

“The b worth could beryllium utilized arsenic an eruption precursor for different volcanoes wherever a capable number of earthquakes is available, yet starring to amended guidance of volcanic hazard and nationalist safety,” they write.