Flu season is coming for Europe. How bad could it be this year?

Flu play is connected nan way.

It’s difficult to foretell conscionable really terrible nan influenza play will beryllium each year, but nationalist wellness experts opportunity it could beryllium harsh successful Europe owed to lagging vaccination rates and early signals from far-flung countries specified arsenic Japan and Australia.

As of mid-October, nan number of patients pinch flu-like respiratory symptoms “remains debased but is expanding successful astir countries, arsenic expected for this clip of year,” according to nan European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), which tracks flu activity successful nan European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway.

Europe’s flu play usually runs from mid-November to precocious May – but seasonal patterns whitethorn person shifted since nan COVID-19 pandemic.

After a shorter-than-usual flu play from 2023-2024, past year’s play was “unusually large,” Colin Russell, a professor astatine Amsterdam University Medical Center and chair of nan European Scientific Working Group connected Influenza (ESWI), told Euronews Health.

Eleven countries are now reporting sporadic flu activity, ECDC information shows. Meanwhile, successful nan United Kingdom, wellness officials person warned that flu levels are already rising, peculiarly among children.

“It’s nan clip of nan twelvemonth wherever everything starts,” Dr Anna Odone, head of nan School of Public Health astatine nan University of Pavia successful Italy, told Euronews Health.

Ultimately, Odone said nan season’s severity successful immoderate fixed state will dangle connected 3 factors: nan number of susceptible people, nan strain of nan microorganism spreading this year, and nan environment. For example, if it’s a long, acold winter, group whitethorn walk much clip indoors, allowing nan microorganism to dispersed much easily.

Health experts are now watching for signs of early flu outbreaks successful places wherever group person adjacent interaction pinch each different – specified arsenic schools, aged attraction facilities, and prisons – to find erstwhile nan flu play really starts. That tin disagree based connected nan country.

Officials are besides monitoring which strains of nan flu harvest up. Last year, nan H1 and H3 strains of influenza A, on pinch influenza B/Victoria, were nan superior strains successful overmuch of Europe.

Other parts of nan globe could connection immoderate clues. In Australia and New Zealand, a strain of influenza A, called H3N2, has surged complete nan past 2 months, astir nan extremity of winter. Meanwhile, Japan declared an influenza pandemic earlier this month, immoderate 5 weeks earlier than nan flu play usually starts there.

However, it is excessively soon to opportunity pinch certainty which strains will beryllium ascendant successful Europe this year.

“We're successful wait-and-see mode correct now,” Russell said.

Influenza risks tied to vaccination

While nan flu doesn’t usually origin superior wellness problems for young, patient people, it is simply a simmering threat during nan colder months alongside different respiratory illnesses, specified arsenic respiratory syncytial microorganism (RSV), pneumonia, and COVID-19.

Up to 1 successful 5 Europeans is infected pinch influenza each winter, and it is associated pinch astir 27,600 deaths annually crossed nan EU.

Getting vaccinated up of flu play is nan champion measurement to protect against nan microorganism and relieve unit connected hospitals. The jab is updated each twelvemonth because protection from nan vaccine weakens complete time, apt owed to a operation of waning immunity and nan influenza microorganism evolving.

Yet vaccination rates person lagged crossed Europe successful caller years for some influenza and routine puerility vaccines, which an ECDC spokesperson described arsenic “a origin for concern”.

The displacement distant from vaccines could make nan upcoming flu play harsher.

The EU flu vaccination sum target is 75 per cent, but during nan past flu season, astir countries reported sum “well below” 50 per cent, according to nan ECDC. The highest levels were reported successful Denmark (76 per cent), Ireland (75 per cent), Portugal (71 per cent), and Sweden (68 per cent).

“Immunisation has societal and governmental connotations … truthful it's not really easy to get precocious sum rates, which is what we request to power influenza,” Odone said.

The ECDC spokesperson told Euronews Health that section officials should activity to “strengthen nationalist trust, amended access, and guarantee that parents and caregivers are well-informed astir nan value of timely vaccination”.

Health experts opportunity vaccination is peculiarly important for high-risk groups, including group pinch definite chronic conditions, pregnant women, children aged six months to 5 years, older adults, and wellness attraction workers. Most countries rumor circumstantial guidelines for higher consequence groups.

Russell said these group should get vaccinated arsenic adjacent arsenic imaginable to nan opening of nan flu season, and not hold until nan microorganism is already circulating widely. It takes astir 2 weeks aft being vaccinated for your assemblage to create protection against nan flu.

While nan commencement of nan European flu play could alteration depending connected wherever you are connected nan continent, “the easy reply is, if you're not vaccinated yet, you should spell get vaccinated now,” Russell said.