Is the future Qosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan the final nail in Aral Sea's coffin?

By Galiya Khassenkhanova

Published on 27/05/2025 - 15:19 GMT+2

Afghanistan is quickly constructing nan Qosh Tepa Canal, a waterway meant to thief irrigate much than 500,000 hectares of its arid bluish regions, for which it will redirect 20–30% of nan Amu Darya River flow.

Besides Afghanistan, nan Amu Darya flows done Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, pinch nan past 2 countries being downstream. The countries dangle connected nan stream to substance their hydroelectric powerfulness plants and irrigate cultivation lands.

Redirecting nan stream to nan canal will devastate Central Asia’s h2o security, cutting Uzbekistan’s h2o proviso by 15% and Turkmenistan’s by arsenic overmuch arsenic 80%, arsenic good arsenic negatively impact employment and poorness levels, migration and cross-border conflicts.

At nan aforesaid time, authorities successful nan remaining 2 Central Asian states – Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan – look to beryllium little concerned pinch nan rumor because nan Amu Darya does not walk done their territory.

Experts, however, pass that if Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan person little h2o from nan Amu Darya, to mitigate losses, they whitethorn commencement taking much h2o from nan Syr Darya River, of which they are upstream.

“These changes successful nan h2o equilibrium will inevitably impact our country. The travel from nan Syr Darya River from Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan whitethorn trim by 30-40%,” said Azamatkhan Amirtayev, nan leader of Kazakhstan’s greenish statement Baytaq.

Together, nan Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers provender nan ecologically devastated Aral Sea.

“Qosh Tepa will decorativeness disconnected nan Aral Sea basin, it will beryllium nan past nail successful nan coffin,” said Bulat Yessekin, laminitis and coordinator of nan Central Asian Water Resources Management and Climate Change Platform.

To sphere nan ecosystem, he suggested that Central Asian states should stock their power and nutrient resources pinch Afghanistan.

“They’re building nan canal to provender themselves. It’s our responsibility they don’t person water. We person nan intends to lick this problem, if only we return it seriously,” highlighted Yessekin.

Other experts astatine nan caller Water Security and Transboundary Water Use convention agreed that nan building of nan Qosh Tepa Canal will undermine each nan activity connected nan restoration of nan Aral Sea.

Central Asia is already suffering from h2o shortage owed to nan changing ambiance and mediocre h2o management, and nan caller situation whitethorn create irreversible harm to nan countries’ ecosystems.

Water regulation

Water usage successful Central Asia is regulated by nan 1992 statement connected transboundary h2o usage and protection, a descendant of nan Soviet-era Protocol 566. The countries besides abide by nan UN Convention connected nan Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes.

“Central Asian countries person managed to support comparatively cooperative and serene relations contempt ongoing h2o value and amount issues,” states nan UN World Water Development Report 2024.

Afghanistan, however, is not portion of these agreements, pinch nan Taliban not being recognised by immoderate world organisations aliases states.

Despite that, Central Asian countries gradually amended relations pinch nan regime. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan removed nan Taliban from nan database of banned violent organisations, while Uzbekistan is actively building practice pinch its neighbour.

“We are willing successful a unchangeable and adjacent distribution of h2o resources, taking into relationship nan needs of ecosystems and nan socio-economic improvement of regions,” said nan Kazakh Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation.

Afghanistan demonstrated its readiness to talk nan rumor of sharing water, noting that its group person nan aforesaid correct to usage it arsenic different countries.

“We don’t spot immoderate problems successful this regard. This is simply a very bully opportunity for coordination and cooperation,” said Afghanistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammad Naeem Wardak.

“If anyone has immoderate problem, we are afloat prepared to resoluteness it. The Qosh Tepa canal will not beryllium to nan detriment of anyone.”

Kazakhstan believes that a level already exists wherever these issues tin beryllium discussed.

“Considering that successful 2024 Kazakhstan assumed nan chairmanship of nan International Fund for Saving nan Aral Sea (IFAS), nan Ministry considers it due to reside location h2o distribution issues, including Afghanistan, wrong nan IFAS framework, pending nan statement of each personnel states,” nan h2o resources ministry stated.

All parties work together that Afghanistan has nan correct to return h2o from nan Amu Darya but should do truthful successful practice and statement pinch its downstream neighbours.

Kabul should see modern h2o conservation technologies to forestall unnecessary h2o loss, and Central Asia tin stock its experts.