New index reveals countries in the ‘red zone’ of climate vulnerability - including two in Europe

By&nbspEuronews Green

Published on 26/06/2025 - 15:41 GMT+2

A caller scale has identified nan countries astir susceptible to ambiance shocks. 

More than 2 cardinal group unrecorded successful ‘red zone’ nations, wherever nan consequence of a awesome hazard aliases disaster is precocious and entree to finance is dwindling, it reveals. 

Two-thirds of nan 65 nations successful this astir at-risk database are successful Africa, but it besides includes 2 successful Europe: Cyprus and Ukraine.

Built by Columbia Climate School successful nan US pinch support from The Rockefeller Foundation, nan Climate Finance (CliF) VulnerabilityIndex is intended to supply much broad consequence assessments, and yet thief nonstop assistance to those who request it most.

How does indebtedness summation ambiance vulnerability?

“Climate shocks are becoming much predominant and intense, yet galore of nan nations facing nan highest threats are besides heavy indebted, limiting their entree to financial markets,” says Jeff Schlegelmilch, Associate Professor of Professional Practice of Climate and Director of nan National Centre for Disaster Preparedness astatine nan Columbia Climate School. 

Heatwaves, floods, cyclones, droughts and different utmost events are each connected nan emergence arsenic nan ambiance heats up. 

Though predictions are rife pinch uncertainties, these ambiance disasters could consequence successful much than 14.5 cardinal deaths and $12.5 trillion (around €10.7 trillion) successful world economical losses by 2050, according to nan World Economic Forum.

Meanwhile nan United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that nan yearly adjustment financing spread - nan magnitude countries request to accommodate to ambiance alteration - could beryllium arsenic overmuch arsenic $387 cardinal (€331 billion) a year.

At nan aforesaid time, precocious borrowing costs and constricted entree to finance support galore nations trapped successful a rhythm of ambiance disaster consequence and recovery, nan researchers say, incapable to really beforehand their ambiance mitigation and adaptation.

“Traditional assistance models based connected GDP per capita aliases income level don’t seizure nan unsocial and increasing risks of ambiance vulnerability on pinch constricted entree to superior to negociate these risks,” adds Schlegelmilch. 

“The CliF Vulnerability Index provides a much realistic image of risk, including nan entree to financing to reside climate vulnerabilities.”

Eric Pelofsky, Vice President for Global Economic Recovery astatine The Rockefeller Foundation, says nan scale is an important conversation-starter, connected nan eve of nan Fourth International Conference connected Financing for Development successful Seville adjacent week. 

“By utilizing nan CliF Vulnerability Index, donors and funders tin prioritise support for countries that are perchance surviving 1 disaster distant from crisis.”

Why are Cyprus and Ukraine ‘red zone’ nations?

The Red Zone is dominated by countries successful sub-Saharan Africa, which comprise 43 (66 per cent) of nan 65 countries successful nan threat area wherever ambiance vulnerability and financial weakness overlap.

The scale makes 4 forecasts per country: utilizing a 2050 aliases 2080 timeline, arsenic good arsenic ‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’ ambiance scenarios.

10 African nations look successful nan bottommost 10 countries crossed each 4 scenarios: Angola, Burundi, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, Lesotho, Malawi, South Sudan, Sudan, and Zambia.

Saliem Fakir, Executive Director of The African Climate Foundation, says nan scale complements its ain activity advocating for “more systemic approaches to adjustment successful Africa for countries suffering by precocious indebtedness distress.”

Ukraine and Cyprus besides look successful nan reddish zone; Cyprus successful nan 2050 optimistic, 2050 pessimistic, and 2080 pessimistic scenarios. Ukraine successful 2050 optimistic and 2080 optimistic scenarios.

This is chiefly owed to non-climate hazards, which are nevertheless included successful nan data. Cyprus is prone to earthquakes, while conflict successful Ukraine makes it vulnerable. 

These factors effect disaster management, ambiance adjustment systems and pressures connected finance, a spokesperson for Columbia Climate School and Rockefeller Foundation explains.

European nations are amended represented among nan database of nations champion equipped to woody pinch ambiance shocks. Eight of these apical 10 countries are OECD members, and half are successful Europe: Denmark, Estonia, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, arsenic good arsenic South Korea, Japan and nan US.