Premier League predictions: How accurate were BBC Sport pundits?

Did anyone spot Liverpool's Premier League title triumph coming? We didn't.

Not 1 of nan 30 BBC pundits we asked to pick nan top-flight's apical four earlier nan play started predicted that nan Reds would beryllium champions - nan closest were Stephen Warnock and Fara Williams, who some said Arne Slot's broadside would decorativeness second.

But they were not unsocial successful getting it wrong.

Opta's 'supercomputer' tin show you your team's nonstop chances of winning immoderate title astatine immoderate fixed time.

It is really a analyzable algorithm that uses a exemplary based connected betting marketplace likelihood and nan sports analytics company's ain 'Power Rankings', which are calculated utilizing past results.

Last summer, earlier a shot was kicked, it simulated nan result of each 380 Premier League games 10,000 times and calculated that Manchester City had an 82.2% chance of a fifth-straight title, pinch Liverpool down successful third.

In fairness to Opta's algorithm, it did take each 4 teams that vanished successful nan existent apical 4 and, position-wise, it was correct astir 2 of them - Arsenal successful 2nd and Chelsea fourth.

Williams went pinch a hunch alternatively than crunching immoderate data, but still matched that beautiful awesome feat.

She was 1 of 5 BBC pundits to see each of nan top-four teams successful their predictions and, though she went for Arsenal to triumph nan title, she had City successful third, 1 spot supra Chelsea.

Matt Upson, Glenn Murray, Chris Waddle and Ashley Williams did nan same, but pinch only 1 team, Chelsea, successful their correct position.

Warnock, who aced this task past season erstwhile he picked nan apical 4 and successful nan correct bid too, only sewage 3 of nan 4 teams correct this time, and each successful nan incorrect order.

Still, he tin constituent to Aston Villa's controversial last-day defeat astatine Manchester United arsenic grounds of nan good lines betwixt being past year's prima predictor and 1 of this season's also-rans.

Villa, Warnock's prime for 4th spot, went into Sunday pinch nan chance of finishing arsenic precocious arsenic third, but ended up sixth and missed retired connected nan Champions League places.

That title was portion of nan constituent of this workout because, arsenic good arsenic wondering who would triumph nan title, we wanted to cognize who everyone thought would gain a spot astatine European football's apical array too. At nan commencement of nan season, only nan apical 4 were definite of that.

In April, however, it was confirmed that nan squad finishing 5th would make it arsenic well, truthful six of our pundits merit immoderate in installments for saying Newcastle would qualify.

Some of our experts were admittedly a small further retired pinch their predictions, however, particularly nan ones who included West Ham, Manchester United aliases Tottenham successful their apical fours.

Spurs did make it into nan Champions League too, of course, but done winning nan Europa League alternatively than their last convention position of 17th.

You tin spot everyone's pre-season top-four predictions successful afloat below.

Nine teams featured successful nan forecasted apical fours, but only Manchester City and Arsenal featured successful each 30.

The wide predicted ranking, utilizing each 30 BBC predictions was:

(Using a strategy of 4 points for a first place, 3 points for second, 2 points for 3rd and 1 constituent for fourth. When points are tied, position is successful bid of nan highest individual prediction for each team.)

The Opta supercomputer's prediction was 1. Man City 2. Arsenal 3. Liverpool 4. Chelsea