Russia’s diplomatic circle of friends: Taliban and North Korea in, Azerbaijan and Armenia out

In a move sparking important backlash, Russia became nan first state successful nan world to recognise nan Taliban arsenic nan ruling authorities of Afghanistan.

"We judge that nan enactment of charismatic nickname of nan authorities of nan Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will springiness impetus to nan improvement of productive bilateral practice betwixt our countries successful various fields," Russia's Foreign Ministry said successful a connection connected Thursday.

The Taliban, an Islamist militant group, seized power of Afghanistan in August 2021 pursuing nan withdrawal of US and NATO forces, toppling nan Western-backed government.

Neither nan US nor nan EU person formally recognised nan group, and Washington still designates nan Taliban a violent organisation, aliases much specifically, a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT).

In July 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the Taliban "allies successful nan conflict against terrorism". Russia’s president besides antecedently referred to nan Taliban arsenic "allies," while Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called them "sane people".

Moscow’s caller friends

Since nan opening of Moscow’s full-scale penetration of Ukraine successful early 2022, nan Kremlin has progressively sought much practice pinch totalitarian regimes, including North Korea and Iran, to beforehand economical and subject partnerships.

Iran was among nan first to fortify its ties pinch nan Kremlin. Tehran delivered thousands of Shahed onslaught drones to Russia and past shared nan applicable technological blueprints, enabling Moscow to found home accumulation lines of its own.

These drones are now being made astatine Russian accommodation successful quickly expanding quantities and are playing a cardinal domiciled successful nan Kremlin’s bombing run against Ukrainian cities, infrastructure sites and civilians.

In January, Russia and Iran signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, which Vladimir Putin praised arsenic a “real breakthrough” successful bilateral relations. 

But erstwhile Israel and later nan US began a run of airstrikes against Iranian targets, Moscow did not travel to support an state and was unwilling aliases incapable to connection thing much important than negotiated gestures.

Putin described nan US airstrikes connected Iranian atomic accommodation arsenic acts of “unprovoked aggression” pinch “no ground aliases justification” amid his ain unprovoked all-out warfare against Ukraine successful its 4th year.

By nan extremity of past year, erstwhile Iranian drones and exertion did not bring Russia immoderate person to occupying each of Ukraine aliases moreover each of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which Moscow has been attempting to prehend since 2014, nan Kremlin sewage different state involved.

This clip nan support came not successful nan tech aliases equipment, but successful nan boots connected nan ground.

North Korea sent tens of thousands of soldiers to support Russian troops arsenic they couldn’t push Ukrainian forces retired of Russia’s Kursk region aft Kyiv’s astonishment incursion successful August 2024.

After it initially sent 11,000 troops to Russia successful autumn past year, astir 4,000 of those North Korean soldiers were killed aliases injured successful nan deployment, according to Western officials. Yet, Pyongyang's practice pinch Moscow has since strengthened moreover more.

North Korea is now group to triple that number and nonstop arsenic galore arsenic 30,000 further soldiers to reenforce Moscow troops.

According to a Ukrainian intelligence official, these caller troops whitethorn get successful Russia successful nan coming months.

Moscow’s erstwhile allies

While bogged down successful Ukraine, Russia has been gradually losing its power successful the ex-Soviet space. The astir striking improvement successful this consciousness is nan nonaccomplishment of Russia's decades-long stronghold successful the South Caucasus region.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan reclaimed afloat power of the Karabakh region after a lightning subject campaign, pursuing a decades-long conflict pinch Armenia successful which Russia was a cardinal actor.

Almost 2 years later, Yerevan and Baku are making history distant from Russia by agreeing connected nan matter of a bid accord and normalising their relations aft a bloody conflict that until precocious had nary extremity successful sight. 

And though nan roadworthy up is still a situation for some countries, nan way seems to beryllium clear and now includes Turkey, but not Russia, which has been pulling nan strings successful the conflict since nan 1990s.

Moscow’s relations with some Baku and Yerevan person ne'er been arsenic bad arsenic they are now.

Azerbaijan and Russia

In December 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines rider pitchy collapsed while connected a formation from Baku to Grozny, nan location superior of nan Russian republic of Chechnya.

Azerbaijani authorities said nan pitchy was accidentally deed by occurrence from Russian aerial defences, past tried to onshore successful occidental Kazakhstan erstwhile it crashed, sidesplitting 38 of 67 group aboard.

Putin apologised to Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev for what he called a “tragic incident” but stopped short of acknowledging responsibility. Aliyev criticised Moscow for trying to “hush up” nan incident and asked for those responsible to beryllium punished.

But nan relations betwixt nan erstwhile allies have only gotten worse since.

In May, Aliyev declined to be Russia’s Victory Day parade successful Moscow alongside different leaders of ex-Soviet nations. Later that month, a Ukrainian overseas curate visited Baku, a motion of person ties pinch Kyiv.

The tensions escalated quickly complete nan past week, erstwhile Russian constabulary raided nan homes of respective taste Azerbaijanis successful Yekaterinburg, Russia’s fourth-largest city, successful what authorities said was portion of an investigation into murders making love backmost decades.

Brothers Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov died in nan raids, and respective different taste Azerbaijanis were earnestly injured.

Baku responded swiftly and robustly by first calling disconnected antecedently scheduled Russian official visits, summoning nan Russian ambassador to Baku to protest, past cancelling Russian cultural events. 

However nan backlash culminated truthful acold pinch Azerbaijani authorities raiding nan offices of Russia's state-run news agency Sputnik Azerbaijan, owned by Rossiya Segodnya, which is successful move owned and operated by nan Russian government. The executive head and editor-in-chief person been issued four-month detentions.

On nan aforesaid day, nan Azerbaijani president had a telephone telephone pinch his Ukrainian counterpart, which further angered nan Kremlin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he expressed support for Baku “in a business wherever Russia is bullying Azerbaijani citizens and threatening nan Republic of Azerbaijan.”

Shortly after, an Azerbaijani news outlet released what it said was a signaling suggesting nan Russian subject ordered nan December 2024 rocket onslaught on AZAL Flight 8243. 

Azerbaijani news outlet Minval claims it received an “anonymous missive ... containing testimonies, audio clips, and method details” pointing to “technical deficiencies successful nan communications instrumentality utilized astatine nan time. The outlet didn’t supply specifications connected erstwhile nan alleged missive had been sent.

Three days aft nan crash, successful an reside to nan nation, Aliyev said, "we tin opportunity pinch complete clarity that nan level was changeable down by Russia (...) We are not saying that it was done intentionally, but it was done.”

Armenia and Russia

Azerbaijan’s lightning run successful Karabakh successful 2023 demonstrated to Armenia what Syria’s and Iran’s regimes recovered retired later – Russia is not stepping successful to support its friends erstwhile they request it.

Military experts adhd that Russia besides is not afloat tin of doing it since February 2022 pinch each of its resources and troops blocked successful Moscow’s full-scale penetration of Ukraine.

A fewer weeks aft Azerbaijan’s operation, Armenia ratified nan International Criminal Court’s statute, which had issued an apprehension warrant for Putin connected suspicion of illegally deporting hundreds aliases much children from Ukraine successful March 2023, half a twelvemonth earlier Yerevan subjected itself to nan jurisdiction of nan tribunal successful The Hague.

In 2024, successful an unprecedented development, Armenia put a frost connected its information successful nan Kremlin-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) — Moscow’s reply to NATO.

And 1 twelvemonth later, successful early 2025, the Armenian parliament adopted a measure aimed astatine starting nan process of joining nan European Union – an yet dispute measurement arsenic acold arsenic Moscow is concerned.

Moscow has been trying to repair nan practice pinch its erstwhile ally. Lavrov visited Yerevan connected 20 May, signalling nan Kremlin’s intent to stabilise and reenforce ties pinch Armenia.

A fewer days after, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas visited Armenia, signing a business statement pinch nan authorities successful Yerevan.

According to Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, nan sides not only completed nan negotiations connected nan caller business agenda, but – what mightiness beryllium moreover much important - launched consultations successful nan section of defence and information “aimed to align practice pinch existent challenges”.

But nan astir important sojourn took spot not successful Yerevan, but successful Turkey. As Russia’s foreign curate was successful Yerevan, Armenia’s prime curate was successful Istanbul gathering pinch Turkey’s president.

In what was antecedently considered an unimaginable scenario, Recep Erdoğan and Nikol Pashinyan discussed imaginable steps for normalising relations betwixt Turkey and Armenia. The sides do not person immoderate general negotiated ties, and it was Pashinyan’s first “working visit” to Turkey.

Armenia is seeking nan reopening of its associated separator pinch Turkey, which would thief alleviate nan country’s isolation. Turkey, a adjacent state of Azerbaijan, unopen down its separator pinch Armenia successful 1993 successful a show of solidarity pinch Baku over nan Karabakh conflict.

With nan unprecedented escalations betwixt Azerbaijan and Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he will support Armenia's bid efforts pinch Azerbaijan.

It is difficult to overestimate nan value of this connection and this show of really nan negotiated tables move not only successful nan South Caucasus region, but beyond, pinch nan imaginable repercussions each nan measurement to Russia’s penetration of Ukraine.