State of the EU? Von der Leyen has the mic — here’s how to follow

Yes, it’s scripted. Yes, it kicks disconnected with that awkward 20-minute prelude wherever nan Commission main strolls done nan hemicycle, shaking hands and kissing cheeks pinch statement leaders arsenic if she's conscionable been reunited pinch long-lost friends.

And yes, it tin resistance connected for much than 4 hours erstwhile you adhd successful MEPs reactions.

But nan end-of-summer classical known arsenic nan State of nan European Union (SOTEU) reside will still group nan reside for EU authorities aft nan summertime break, moreover aft 1 of nan busiest Augusts successful memory.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has ever treated her erstwhile addresses arsenic a three-part capacity (rarely engaging pinch MEPs' concerns), alternatively than a azygous connection followed by a due debate.

So, each clip she speaks it's worth listening for those who travel EU affairs.

Thankfully, location are plentifulness of ways to travel it live, from webstream to Euronews’ liveblog. But to really travel it for illustration a pro, here’s your guideline to what to watch, what to ignore, and wherever nan existent stories will beryllium hiding.

Announcements are nan point

The SOTEU was designed arsenic Europe’s balanced of nan US State of nan Union: a high-profile infinitesimal for nan Commission president to group priorities.

So, if you expect spicy developments connected issues specified as Pfizergate, hide nan thought that Parliament uses this infinitesimal to clasp nan Commission to account.

Over nan years, nan SOTEU has turned into a one-woman show for von der Leyen to driblet announcements. For instance, she utilized nan shape successful 2020 to motorboat nan European Health Union, while successful 2021, she announced she'd rotation retired nan Chips Act.

Because nan Commission has already clarified astir of its schedule successful its activity programme, don’t expect a flood of caller policies or for von der Leyen to rewrite her ain governmental guidelines.

But symbolic gestures drawback attention, arsenic erstwhile successful 2022 she declared a European Year of Skills to tackle labour shortages aliases erstwhile successful 2023 she first launched nan “strategic dialogue” connected agriculture, a format that has since dispersed to different sectors.

Do expect immoderate symbolic add-ons aliases a astonishment name-drop that will predominate headlines: Remember erstwhile Mario Draghi was casually announced arsenic nan writer of a forthcoming competitiveness study past time?

But look retired for market-moving moments…

A newer inclination is nan SOTEU’s effect connected financial markets.

When von der Leyen announced an anti-subsidy probe into Chinese EVs successful 2023, European carmakers’ stocks spiked wrong nan hour, pinch Renault rising by 3.5%, Volkswagen by 2.7%, BMW by 2%, and Mercedes by 1%.

Besides, investors would beryllium wise to watch intimately besides since Von der Leyen has a sensation for large money pledges too.

Pandemic preparedness costs dropped into nan 2021 SOTEU? €50 billion. A European Hydrogen Bank? €3 billion. There’s ever rate successful nan speech.

…and for cryptic messages

The SOTEU is besides known for sweeping phrases that sound profound but often deficiency clarity.

In 2023, von der Leyen declared that her attack to China would beryllium “de-risk, not decouple”, immoderate that motto really meant.

That twelvemonth she besides hinted astatine enlargement pinch a mysterious “30+” formula: “We started nan Defence Union astatine 27. We tin decorativeness it astatine 30+.” Which countries are included? Don’t ask.

Grand claims astir transportation besides merit scrutiny.

In her past speech, she boasted that 90% of her 2019 governmental guidelines had been implemented. But immoderate months before, nan European Parliament’s ain investigation work calculated nan fig person to two-thirds, pinch only half of submitted initiatives afloat adopted.

What she doesn’t say

Another pro-tip for pursuing nan SOTEU: what goes unsaid is conscionable arsenic telling.

Agriculture stakeholders still callback that nan assemblage was hardly mentioned successful nan 2020 SOTEU, a perceived flimsy that fed months of discontent.

Still connected nan topic, successful 2023, she skipped complete nan Farm to Fork strategy entirely, replacing it pinch a vague “strategic dialogue”. Many took that arsenic a quiet retreat from nan erstwhile flagship EU nutrient policy.

This year, observers will watch intimately to spot whether parts of nan Green Deal — erstwhile nan centrepiece of her instruction — slice into nan background.

Language is politics

Applause is rarer these days, particularly pinch a Parliament that’s much hostile. But don’t conscionable perceive for claps. Listen for nan language.

Von der Leyen is simply a skilled polyglot, flipping easy betwixt German, French and English, and moreover sounds Italian erstwhile needed.

These choices are seldom accidental. In 2023, she switched to German while talking astir farmers — not a coincidence, fixed her ain European People Party’s predetermination strategy to champion agriculture.

A connection displacement tin beryllium a awesome of who she is addressing — whether it beryllium home constituencies, European partners, aliases world audiences.

Narratives (and possibly guests?)

The Commission president is surrounded by storytellers and often frames argumentation announcements successful individual aliases symbolic narratives.

Her Cancer Plan was launched pinch nan building “that’s personal”. The Moria exile campy occurrence successful 2020 became nan civilized trigger for her migration pact announced successful her 2020 SOTEU.

In erstwhile years, she has besides been accompanied by symbolic guests: Paralympic champion Bebe Vio successful 2021, and Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska successful 2022. The contented was dropped successful 2023, but possibly this twelvemonth she'll get pinch a impermanent again.

Don’t expect nerves

Whether nan enclosure is dispute aliases not, this is von der Leyen’s turf.

She’s been doing SOTEUs since 2020 — and pinch Wednesday’s speech, she becomes nan record-holder for nan astir delivered by a Commission president.

Political group leaders and lawmakers will criticise her, sure. But she seldom engages. She sees nan SOTEU arsenic her ain three-act performance, not a debate.

Whether she opts for a protect stance aliases presses guardant aggressively pinch her agenda, nan anticipation is nan same: confidence, clarity of delivery, and small consequence of misstep.

After all, nan SOTEU is portion spectacle, portion argumentation horoscope. Watch nan announcements, way what’s missing, statement nan connection shifts.

But don’t expect Ursula von der Leyen to break a sweat while she does it.