The Unexpected Winners of Trump’s Trade War

But Shein and Temu didn’t extremity trading altogether. Instead, some companies chose to displacement their advertisement budgets overseas to regions wherever nan geopolitical risks were perceived to beryllium little and maturation opportunities much abundant. Shein spent 22 percent of its wide advertizing walk successful nan US marketplace during nan 2nd quarter, compared to 39 percent successful nan first 3 months of 2025, according to Sensor Tower. Temu’s US spend, meanwhile, went from 47 percent to simply 9 percent. As a result, Shein and Temu’s income successful countries different than nan US, specified arsenic nan UK, person surged to record highs.

But nan dip didn’t past long. After hitting stone bottommost successful June, some companies began ramping backmost up their US advertisement spending successful July, Shah’s information shows. In August, Shein spent much connected trading successful nan US than it did successful August 2024.

The figures bespeak nan truth that nan Chinese platforms had figured retired a caller playbook: continue shipping products contempt nan tariffs, walk immoderate costs to consumers, and enactment competitory by focusing connected building independent proviso chains and storage networks that tin thief support shipping costs down.

App shop charts propose that nan caller strategy is working. After a little descent successful fame earlier this year, Shein and Temu were now erstwhile again ranking wrong nan apical 5 apps successful nan shopping class of nan US Apple App Store and Google Play shop arsenic of Wednesday.

Temu and Shein did not instantly reply to requests for remark from WIRED.

Behind nan Curve

The large Chinese platforms had been preparing for nan extremity of de minimis for much than a twelvemonth and were capable to quickly recalibrate their logistics strategies erstwhile nan tariffs yet went into effect. The aforesaid cannot beryllium said for independent shops.

Denys, nan Ukrainian Etsy shop owner, says he’s anticipating needing to raise nan value of his products to enactment afloat. “If nan caller tariffs remain, prices will inevitably summation by astatine slightest that 10 percent successful nan future,” he says.

He has precocious begun moving pinch a section Ukrainian shipping institution called NovaPost, which stepped successful to thief sellers navigate customs procedures and pledged to enarthrosis portion of nan interest increases for section companies. The business successful Ukraine is acold little chaotic than successful different parts of nan world, wherever galore postal companies person wholly halted sending packages to nan US because of ongoing disorder complete nan specifications of Trump’s waste and acquisition policies.

I deliberation we each use from being capable to shop from mini vendors astir nan world. Over nan past fewer years, I’ve purchased a 3D-printed topographic representation from Canada, creation prints from Germany, and Denys’ woodwork from Ukraine. I didn’t group retired to shop from overseas brands, but modern world ecommerce platforms gave maine entree to a wider scope of products, which were often sold astatine little prices than nan equipment successful adjacent unit stores. Short of learning carpentry myself, Denys’ Etsy shop successful Ukraine is astir apt nan champion action for getting affordable customized woodwork to my location successful New York City.

But pinch nan extremity of de minimis, galore Americans mightiness take to trim backmost connected buying artisanal equipment and different nonessential items from abroad. If that happens, mini sellers will beryllium nan ones deed nan hardest. “This mostly affects impulse buying and past things we don’t need,” Juozas Kaziukėnas, an ecommerce level analyst, told my workfellow Boone Ashworth. “It's not affecting nan value of milk, for example.”

I’m still waiting for my woody slats, which Denys says should yet clear customs soon. I’m hoping that businesses for illustration his are capable to past successful this caller ecosystem. Otherwise, I mightiness person nary prime but to return up carpentry, but who knows really overmuch I would person to salary successful tariffs connected my caller woodworking tools?

This is an version of Zeyi Yang and Louise Matsakis’ Made successful China newsletter. Read erstwhile newsletters here.