There’s a Very Simple Pattern to Elon Musk’s Broken Promises

“My predictions about achieving afloat self-driving person been optimistic successful nan past,” Musk admitted to investors successful 2023. “I’m nan boy who cried FSD." He surely has. Many times. Indeed, Musk has a agelong history of making outlandish promises and unfulfilled predictions astir his businesses—and it's a wont that seems difficult to break.

On nan Tesla earnings call pinch investors successful late April, Elon Musk reportedly sounded aggrieved arsenic he was forced to admit a woeful 71 percent dip successful profits. On nan defensive, and seemingly grasping for affirmative rotation among nan dire results, Musk promised thing implausible: The carmaker would go nan world’s starring robotics company, ushering successful nan “closest point to eden we tin get connected Earth.” (He has since doubled down connected this, stating that request for his robots will beryllium insatiable, and earlier this period he claimed that robots will number successful nan tens of billions and beryllium for illustration “your ain individual C-3PO aliases R2-D2, but moreover better.”)

On nan call, contempt tanking worldwide sales for his company’s aging cars and cratering request for nan Cybertruck, Musk asserted nan “future for Tesla is brighter than ever.” He batted distant nan precipitous autumn successful income arsenic simply “near-term headwinds,” urging investors to disregard nan non-autonomous-car business and measure nan “value of nan company” connected “delivering sustainable abundance pinch our affordable AI-powered robots.”

Still, moreover though Musk has a agelong history of surgery promises, investors seemed soothed by tales of crushing marketplace domination for Tesla, not arsenic nan car institution it is today, but arsenic nan robotics behemoth Musk claims it will soon become.

WIRED examined nan history of Musk’s pledges connected everything from Full Self Driving, Hyperloop, Robotaxis, and, yes, robot armies, pinch a position to reminding ourselves, his fans, and investors really reality successful Elon’s world seldom matches up to nan rhetoric. Tellingly, Musk’s fallback forecast of “next year” turns up repeatedly, only to beryllium consistently proven wrong.

“My predictions person a beautiful bully way record,” Musk told Tesla unit astatine an all-hands gathering successful March. Here's a chronological look astatine that way record.

19 Years of Broken Promises

August 2006: False Start

“[Our] agelong word scheme is to build a wide scope of models, including affordably priced family cars,” wrote Elon Musk successful nan Tesla Secret Master Plan hosted connected nan Tesla website 19 years ago. “When personification buys nan Tesla Roadster,” he added, “they are really helping salary for improvement of nan low-cost family car.”

In Master Plan, Part Deux, written 10 years aft nan first plan, Musk reiterated that, moreover though Tesla had not yet delivered connected nan 2006 promise, it still planned to build an “affordable, high-volume car.” 2016 came and went without an entry-level car. In January this year, Musk said that—finally—Tesla would commencement producing nan affordable exemplary successful nan 2nd half of 2025.

However, successful April, Reuters reported that Tesla had scrapped plans for nan inexpensive family car. Musk posted connected X that “Reuters is lying (again),” eliciting nan Reuters consequence that “[Musk] did not place immoderate circumstantial inaccuracies.” A Tesla root told Reuters that alternatively of nan long-promised inexpensive family car, “Elon’s directive is to spell each successful connected robotaxi.”

August 2013: Hyperloop Hype

While he did not straight ain immoderate of nan Hyperloop companies, successful a 58-page achromatic paper titled “Hyperloop Alpha”, Musk wrote of a “new unfastened root shape of proscription that could revolutionize travel.” It didn’t. The Hyperloop was shuttered successful 2023, 10 years aft it was first proposed—but moreover arsenic precocious arsenic 2022, Musk was still promising that Hyperloop could spell from Boston to New York City “in little than half an hour.”

A shape of magnetic levitation (maglev) capsule successful an air-evacuated alloy conduit connected stilts, Hyperloop was described connected nan company’s website arsenic being an “ultra-high-speed nationalist proscription strategy successful which passengers recreation successful autonomous electrical pods astatine 600+ miles per hour.” This explanation has since been removed but was documented by Electrek. Engineers from Tesla and SpaceX worked connected Hyperloop for 2 years earlier nan task was taken up by different companies successful 2017.