Turkey prices soar ahead of Thanksgiving as US flock now smallest in 40 years

America mightiness beryllium going acold turkey connected turkey.

With Thanksgiving conscionable astir nan corner, nan nation’s turkey flock has decreased to nan smallest size successful 40 years — and a autumn rebound successful avian flu cases is adding to nan damage.

Due to tighter accumulation and losses from disease, wholesale turkey prices are astir 40% higher than they were past year, according to nan American Farm Bureau Federation.

According to USDA information cited by nan bureau, wholesale prices for turkey are expected to summation to $1.32 per lb — moreover pinch accumulation falling to a 40-year low.

There’s expected to beryllium 4.8 cardinal pounds of production, which is 5% beneath 2024.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) deed nan turkey manufacture hard, impacting astir 18.7 cardinal turkeys and accounting for 10% of each birds affected by nan microorganism since 2022.

This number reported by nan Farm Bureau connected Oct. 1 includes 2.2 cardinal turkeys affected truthful acold successful 2025, chiefly impacting 12 states.

In 2025, 195 cardinal turkeys were raised, which is 3% little twelvemonth complete twelvemonth and 36% beneath nan highest successful 1996.

According to USDA data, astir 514,000 turkeys person been affected by caller vertebrate flu outbreaks this period unsocial — mostly successful Minnesota.

However, experts haven’t mislaid dream for vacation dinners. The National Turkey Federation told Axios that location will beryllium capable for Thanksgiving, but proviso could perchance tighten for caller aliases specific-size birds if cases of avian flu summation successful nan coming weeks.

“U.S. turkey growers and processors person been moving astir nan clock, managing done challenges for illustration avian influenza and avian metapneumovirus,” said Leslee Oden, nan Federation’s president and CEO.

“We consciousness assured successful nan stiff turkey supply, and while there’s been an uptick successful vertebrate flu cases, we do not spot those impacting wide proviso correct now,” Oden told Axios.

Oden noted that if shoppers want a circumstantial size of type of turkey, they should scheme up conscionable to beryllium safe.

A spokesperson for Butterball confirmed to Axios that location will beryllium plentifulness of disposable options from their marque sloppy of nan “ever-evolving, industrywide challenge.”

Last year, a study by Finance Buzz crowned Hawaii arsenic nan location of the most costly turkeys in nan United States, costing $52.85 for a 15-pound specimen. Alaska came successful 2nd astatine $44.85 per turkey, connected average. New York came successful sixth place, pinch turkeys costing $35.85.

The average costs of a Thanksgiving meal for 10 successful 2024 was $58.08, aliases astir $5.80 per person, according to past year’s American Farm Bureau Federation’s yearly Thanksgiving meal survey.

In 2022, a grounds of $64.06 was set, nan highest since nan bureau began its yearly appraisal successful 1986.