What does xG tell us about how Premier League teams have started the season?

The Premier League array is starting to return style and while results are evidently what matter most, they don't show nan full communicative successful position of really teams person been playing truthful far.

Expected goals (xG) tells america really overmuch teams person been dominating games by creating tons of bully chances up beforehand and restricting opponents to few, bad ones astatine nan back.

While it is still early days and immoderate teams person had much difficult starts than others, Premier League history shows that nan much a squad dominates games, nan much successful they are successful nan agelong run.

Penalties are excluded because they distort a team's numbers connected really threatening aliases susceptible they are successful general, particularly astatine this early stage.

Below is simply a schematic showing really bully teams person been successful onslaught and defence, pinch nan astir ascendant teams successful nan top-right area and nan slightest awesome successful nan bottom-left corner.

The higher up nan chart, nan much vulnerable a team's onslaught is while nan further to nan right, nan much coagulated they are astatine nan back.

Arsenal and Manchester City person been nan astir ascendant sides, pinch nan Gunners having nan champion defence and fourth-best onslaught and City nan joint-best onslaught and fourth-best defence.

High-flying Crystal Palace are nan only broadside to rival City's attacking threat, while Newcastle are surviving up to their sanction by being almost arsenic impregnable astatine nan backmost arsenic Arsenal.

Both Manchester United and Chelsea person 1 of nan apical 5 attacks successful nan convention but worryingly besides rank successful nan bottommost 5 defensively.

Liverpool's back-to-back defeats pursuing 5 consecutive wins gives a much meticulous image of really they person been playing, while Tottenham person needed to beryllium very businesslike to dress up for their deficiency of power successful games.

Aston Villa's early-season struggles are nary longer to do pinch finishing - they person now scored six non-penalty goals from an xG of 6.0 - but simply because they person not been playing well.

While promoted sides Leeds and Sunderland person adapted rather good to nan top-flight, Burnley person struggled to make nan jump truthful acold pinch some nan worst onslaught and nan worst defence.

Looking astatine teams' attacks specifically successful nan adjacent graphic, United, Arsenal and Liverpool person taken by acold nan astir shots, averaging astir 15 per game.

But nan logic why City and Crystal Palace person nan champion attacks wide is because they are creating overmuch amended chances, averaging astir 0.14 xG per shot.

What that intends is that historically Premier League sides person converted nan chances City and Palace are creating astatine a complaint of 14%, compared to 10% of nan shots that United, Arsenal and Liverpool are.

Brentford are a unusual broadside because while they are averaging conscionable 8 shots per game, nan value of those chances has been truthful precocious that their onslaught still ranks mid-table overall.

When we look astatine really teams are defending, Arsenal and Newcastle person been truthful awesome because they are giving up some nan fewest shots per crippled and nan hardest chances to people connected average.

But arsenic nan schematic shows, location are 2 teams that guidelines isolated from each nan remainder for having cardinal protect problems: Manchester United and Burnley.

If you look simply astatine nan number of shots that teams are giving up, Manchester United look bully defensively since only Arsenal and Newcastle are facing less than their 9.1 per game.

But not each shots are nan aforesaid and Ruben Amorim's broadside are presently giving up by acold nan easiest chances to people successful nan league, averaging 0.16 xG per changeable faced.

Burnley meantime are facing by acold nan astir shots astatine 18.4 per game, 4 much than immoderate different side, though thankfully nan value of those chances is not that high.

Finally, while astir teams' expected extremity quality marries up rather intimately to their existent one, it is clear that Tottenham are by acold nan hottest broadside successful nan convention successful position of form.

Not only person they been nan astir ruthless broadside successful beforehand of extremity by scoring 5 much goals than expected fixed nan chances they person had, astatine nan different extremity goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario has had to beryllium astatine nan apical of his game, preventing much goals than immoderate different keeper successful nan convention (2.9).

While this is evidently awesome successful nan short term, Thomas Frank will want to quickly amended his caller club's power successful games arsenic nan erstwhile head of stats-savvy Brentford will apt cognize that importantly overperforming your xG does not past forever.