Why Russia is unlikely to let the Vatican mediate peace talks with Ukraine

The imaginable of bid talks betwixt Russia and Ukraine being mediated by Pope Leo XIV astatine nan Vatican is improbable owed to nan power of Russian Orthodoxy and Moscow's mistrust of nan Catholic Church, according to governmental analysts and belief figures.

Shortly aft being elected, Pope Leo XIV said that nan Vatican could enactment arsenic a mediator successful world conflicts, without specifically mentioning Russia’s warfare against Ukraine.

He later confirmed it to Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, saying nan Vatican was so consenting to big nan adjacent information of negotiations to effort to put an extremity nan warfare betwixt Russia and Ukraine.

After Kyiv and Moscow's nonstop talks successful Istanbul yielded almost nary progress, US President Donald Trump besides mentioned nan Vatican arsenic a imaginable venue, pursuing a speech pinch his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

According to a caller connection by nan Vatican's Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, nan pontiff plans to "if necessary, supply nan Vatican, nan Holy See, arsenic a nonstop gathering (place) betwixt nan 2 sides".

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to nan Vatican earlier this period and met Pope Leo XIV pursuing his inaugural Mass. Zelenskyy is successful favour of bid talks betwixt Kyiv and Moscow being held astatine nan Vatican, Ukraine's overseas curate confirmed to Euronews past week.

However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticised nan idea, saying that it would beryllium "a spot inelegant for Orthodox countries to usage a Catholic platform" for talks.

Moscow's wariness of mediation by nan Vatican predates Pope Leo XIV, according to Pasquale Ferrara, nan head wide for governmental affairs astatine Italy’s overseas ministry, and a professor of diplomacy and speech astatine nan LUISS University successful Rome.

"I don’t deliberation Putin sees nan Vatican arsenic having nan basal neutrality," Ferrara told Euronews. "This scepticism existed moreover nether Pope Francis and is rooted successful nan long-standing coolness betwixt nan Russian Orthodox Church and nan Catholic Church."

That hostility has heavy humanities roots, stretching backmost to nan Great Schism of 1054, erstwhile Christianity divided into nan Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox churches.

Russian Orthodox Church's role

In August 2024, nan Ukrainian parliament passed a measure banning activities of belief organisations connected to Russia and those that person administrative centres there.

The authorities specifically targets nan activities of nan Orthodox Church of nan Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP), which is legally subordinate to nan Russian Orthodox Church, nan starring religion successful Russia and a adjacent state of nan Kremlin, afloat supporting Moscow’s warfare successful Ukraine.

All UOC-MP communities were fixed 9 months to afloat break ties pinch nan Russian church.

Ukraine’s Security Service accused a number of clergymen of nan Ukrainian Orthodox Church of nan Moscow Patriarchate of collaborating pinch nan Krmelin and justifying Russian aggression. Over 100 UOC-MP clergy members person travel nether criminal investigation since nan outbreak of nan full-scale war, nan Security Service of Ukraine said.

Once a ascendant belief group successful Ukraine, nan past fewer years person seen galore Moscow Patriarchate communities move allegiance to independent churches, namely nan Ukrainian Orthodox Church of nan Kyiv Patriarchate.

Founded successful 2018 arsenic an institution representing Ukrainian Orthodoxy afloat independent of Moscow, it was granted nan tomos of autocephaly — a archive signifying canonical independency — by Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople, nan astir elder leader of nan Eastern Orthodox Church.

The Moscow Patriarchate hasn’t recognised nan determination and later tried to represent nan Ukrainian government's steps against nan Moscow-linked religion arsenic "persecution of Christians."

The caput of nan Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), Patriarch Kirill, has been an ardent protagonist of nan warfare and a captious state for Putin.

Patriarch Kirill’s vocal support for Putin’s warfare has drawn disapproval from nan likes of Pope Francis and was dubbed a “heresy” by different belief authorities.

Dubbed nan Tobacco Metropolitan for his alleged profiteering disconnected of duty-free cigarettes successful nan 1990s, Patriarch Kirill fiercely maintains his pro-war stance, blaming nan penetration connected "gay parades" and making unproven claims that Ukrainians person been "exterminating" Russian civilians successful nan Donbas.

In early May 2022, attempts by Brussels to adhd Kirill to nan EU's database of sanctioned Russian nationals led to tensions among European leaders aft Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked nan move.

The ROC's stance has seen immoderate Orthodox Churches trim ties pinch nan Moscow Patriarchate, including 1 successful Amsterdam.

Bishop Hlib Lonchyna, a Ukrainian Greek Catholic prelate, expressed his uncertainty astir Russia's willingness to genuinely prosecute successful bid talks aliases judge nan Vatican arsenic a mediator.

"Pope Leo XIV has nary power complete Russia. They don’t recognise our Church astatine all," he told Euronews.

Unlikely, but not unthinkable?

The Vatican has a agelong history of mediating wars, conflicts and governmental disagreements, though it tends to activity down nan scenes and debar publicising its efforts.

One of its top achievements successful caller history was facilitating nan talks betwixt nan US and Cuba successful 2014 that yet resulted successful nan resumption of negotiated relations.

The Vatican has besides often hosted acold little concealed negotiated initiatives, specified arsenic erstwhile it brought together nan rival leaders of war-torn South Sudan successful 2019. The brushwood was made celebrated by nan image of Pope Francis kissing their feet to request them to make peace.

However, for nan Kremlin, nan thought of Pope Leo XIV mediating bid talks whitethorn beryllium seen arsenic an hold of nan Catholic Church’s Western legacy, according to Ferrara of nan Italian overseas ministry.

Ultimately, successful mediation depends little connected nan personality of nan mediator and much connected nan parties' genuine willingness to activity peace, he said.

"Russia has not shown nan kinds of signals that would bespeak a existent desire to negotiate," Ferrara added.

On 16 May, Russia and Ukraine held their first face-to-face discussions since soon aft Moscow's full-scale invasion. During nan talks successful Istanbul, nan 2 sides agreed to speech 1,000 prisoners of warfare each, successful what is nan biggest specified switch to date.

The discussions delivered nary wider breakthrough connected resolving Russia's war, and nary further nonstop bid talks are scheduled, nan Kremlin said past week. Moscow has had nary issues pinch Ankara playing nan host.

Nonetheless, Honduran Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga said past week that he believed that nan Vatican could still enactment arsenic a mediator betwixt Russia and Ukraine.

"It is very difficult, yes, but everything is imaginable pinch Pope Leo XIV — he enjoys nan spot of world leaders," he told nan Italian newspaper La Stampa.

Ferrara besides said that nan Vatican whitethorn person a domiciled to play, contempt nan challenges.

"We should not beryllium excessively sceptical astir nan constructive domiciled belief tin play successful building a caller world order," he added.