Will Trump really pull US troops out of Europe?

History whitethorn repetition itself, but not ever pinch nan aforesaid impact.

In 2012, erstwhile then-US defence caput Leon Panetta announced nan withdrawal of 2 combat brigades - astir 8,000 troops - from Europe successful bid to trim subject spending, occidental European governments shrugged it off.

When US president Donald Trump mused this twelvemonth astir withdrawing US forces from Europe, it sent hardly concealed shockwaves done European chancelleries.

The difference: Panetta astatine nan clip said America's information commitments to Europe and to NATO were "unwavering".

By contrast, Trump has threatened not to protect NATO members that walk excessively small connected defence. And his ain vice president and defence caput made disparaging comments astir European friends in a now-infamous group chat earlier this year, pinch defence main Pete Hegseth expressing his “loathing of European free-loading”, according to nan Atlantic magazine.

Get nan difference?

On nan eve of nan NATO acme successful The Hague this week, nan chatter astir nan US subject leaving Europe for bully has somewhat subsided.

Yet, European diplomats do fearfulness an announcement by Trump after the summit. The Pentagon did not instantly respond to a Euronews petition for comment.

Reason capable to perceive from apical US subject experts whether they deliberation a monolithic US unit withdrawal is connected nan cards and what nan effect of specified a move would beryllium for nan United States – logistically, financially and politically.

First successful statement is nan US ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, a lawyer by education, whose task has progressively tended to soothing nervous European allies.

“Look, European information is connected apical of my mind,” he said astatine a caller nationalist forum successful Brussels. “America needs allies, we can’t do it each alone. And nan reports connected nan US drafting down its unit beingness are perfectly not true. Everything other we will talk pinch our allies.”

Right now, nan US has astir 84,000 progressive work members successful Europe, according to nan US European Command (EUCOM) successful Stuttgart. The full number varies owed to planned exercises and regular rotations of troops successful and retired of nan continent.

For example, pursuing Russia’s full-scale penetration of Ukraine successful 2022, some 20,000 were deployed to states neighbouring Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine to support Ukraine and incorporate nan conflict.

Over nan people of nan war, nan full number of troops has ranged betwixt astir 75,000 and 105,000 subject personnel, chiefly from nan Air Force, Army, and Navy.

The bulk of those troops is stationed successful Germany (40,000), Poland (14,000), Italy (13,000) and nan UK (10,000) pinch nan remainder scattered crossed nan continent from Norway to Turkey.

The applicable logistics of a US withdrawal from Europe, specified arsenic redeployments to nan US aliases elsewhere, would beryllium important and time-consuming.

“If this were to hap successful a systematic manner, it would return galore months, astir apt astatine slightest a year,” Mark Cancian, a retired colonel and elder advisor astatine nan Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) successful Washington, told Euronews.

“The full equipment, each tank, needs to beryllium prepared and shipped. Then nan families of nan soldiers request to beryllium shipped and yet nan work members themselves,” he added. “All successful all, a 4th of a cardinal group mightiness beryllium impacted, possibly more.”

The biggest problem would beryllium wherever they mightiness go. “Current bases successful nan US could sorb 5,000 people, possibly 10,000,” Cancian said. “But nan rest? It would return years to build caller facilities.”

Whether Trump would determine thing of that strategical and governmental magnitude nan effects of which would only almost surely beryllium seen beyond his statesmanlike word is much than doubtful, according to Ian Lesser, a elder governmental expert astatine nan German Marshall Fund (GMF), a transatlantic deliberation tank.

“We already saw an effort by Trump to retreat a sizable unit from Europe during his first term, which only met sizeable guidance from nan information organization successful nan US and was yet shelved by President Biden,” Lesser told Euronews.

The US Congress would besides person to o.k. nan withdrawal, which is not definite fixed nan number of defence hawks, particularly successful nan Senate. A caller bipartisan draught connection by Republican Lindsey Graham and Democrat Richard Blumenthal connected tougher anti-Russian sanctions reportedly has nan backing of up to 90 of nan 100 senators.

“Trump has nary desire to look weak. But a melodramatic simplification of nan American subject footprint successful Europe would do precisely that to him,” Lesser said.

In addition, a ample portion of nan US forces successful Europe are not members of combat brigades, which typically dwell of astir 5,000 soldiers each, but support troops who man a immense subject infrastructure, particularly successful Germany.

Historically, Ramstein Air Base, for instance, and its neighbouring Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, nan largest American infirmary extracurricular nan United States, played a cardinal domiciled successful supporting guardant subject operations, particularly successful nan Middle East.

“It would make small consciousness to denote plans to retreat US troops from Europe nan infinitesimal location is an escalating warfare happening betwixt Israel and Iran,” erstwhile US ambassador William Courtney told Euronews. “And it would astir apt lead to monolithic criticism,” added Courtney, an adjunct elder chap astatine nan RAND Corporation, a world deliberation tank.

And past location are Trump’s efforts to mediate successful nan warfare successful Ukraine. “Trump viewed a US unit withdrawal successful relationship pinch his beardown hopes for an extremity of nan warfare and improved relations pinch Moscow. Yet, it turned retired location is nary ground for that, nary possibility, nan negotiating positions of Russia and Ukraine being excessively acold apart,” Courtney said.

Were US troops to beryllium withdrawn, Europe would person to switch nan full subject infrastructure presently provided by nan US astatine each levels, according to a study by nan International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) based successful London. That intends bases, training areas, weaponry and ammunition, administrative and organisational architecture, intelligence provisions and overmuch more.

This comes pinch a hefty value tag: the nine authors of nan IISS study estimate that replacing nan US publication to NATO pinch European assets would magnitude to astir $1 trillion (€870 billion).

It’s not clear what nan costs of a US unit withdrawal would mean for nan US taxpayer. None of nan experts quoted successful this article was fresh to beforehand a number.

That’s 1 logic nary of them considered specified a determination arsenic very likely.

“No way,” Daniel Runde told Euronews, a elder advisor pinch Washington-based consulting patient BGR Group and writer of The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership done Soft Power.

“Trump will perfectly not do it. His purpose is to get nan Europeans to walk 5% of their GDP connected defence. Then he will move on.”