How much hotter is the world since the Paris Agreement? Here's what a decade of data shows

In 2015, almost 200 countries signed a landmark statement to combat ambiance change.

The Paris Agreement aimed to clasp “the summation successful nan world mean somesthesia to good beneath 2C supra pre-industrial levels” while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

The world has changed a batch since leaders celebrated this historical statement successful Paris a decade ago. Ahead of COP30, UN Secretary General António Guterres conceded that a "temporary overshoot supra 1.5 degrees, starting, astatine nan latest, successful nan early 2030s, is now inevitable".

Emissions person continued to emergence and nan world's ambiance has continued to warm. Extreme upwind events person go much aggravated and much frequent.

As nan UN acme kicks disconnected successful Belém, Brazil, we return a look astatine really our ambiance has changed since nan Paris Agreement was signed successful 2015.

The warmest 10 years connected record

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) person compiled information revealing nan ambiance and atmospheric changes that person defined this decisive decade.

The past 10 years, from 2015 to 2024, person been nan warmest 10 connected record. And, depending connected what world temperatures are successful November and December, 2025 is group to beryllium either nan 2nd aliases 3rd warmest connected record.

“A decade aft nan Paris Agreement, nan world is hotter than ever - each twelvemonth since has classed among nan 10 warmest connected record,” says Carlo Buontempo, head of C3S.

“It is now evident that nan ambiance is shifting astatine a gait humanity has ne'er experienced.”

For nan first clip ever, C3S says, it’s imaginable that nan 1.5ºC period will beryllium exceeded for 3 consecutive years.

How adjacent are we to 1.5ºC?

In December 2015, during nan signing of nan Paris Agreement, information extrapolated from nan Copernicus Global Temperature Trend exertion estimated that world warming had reached 1.04ºC supra pre-industrial levels and would scope 1.5ºC by March 2042.

Today, based connected information from September 2025, we are estimated to beryllium 1.4ºC supra pre-industrial levels, and existent Copernicus inclination information propose nan 1.5 °C period could beryllium reached astir 2029.

To put it different way, a decade agone successful 2015, nan projected deadline for reaching 1.5ºC was 27 years away. Now it is estimated that this period is conscionable 4 years away, aliases 23 years closer.

The striking change, experts say, suggests that world warming has accelerated quickly successful caller years.

While they don't afloat understand nan accelerated summation successful world temperatures, it is clear that ever-growing concentrations of greenhouse gases successful nan ambiance person worsened nan situation. It has made nan extremity of keeping world warming beneath 1.5°C supra nan pre-industrial mean much difficult to achieve.

Progress has been made, however.

In 2015, nan UN Environment Programme’s emissions spread study - published astir nan aforesaid clip nan Paris Agreement was adopted - projected a "baseline" of astir 4°C of warming by 2100.

According to nan latest emissions spread report, nan world is now heading for 2.8°C warming if countries instrumentality their existent ambiance policies and betwixt 2.3 and 2.5°C if signatories to nan Paris Agreement afloat instrumentality their nationalist ambiance plans.

Emissions person continued to increase

Greenhouse gases person steadily risen since 2015, reaching a grounds precocious successful 2024, according to nan World Meteorological Organisation. It said this was nan largest one-year summation since measurements began successful 1957.

Since nan Paris Agreement was signed successful 2015, c dioxide concentrations successful nan ambiance person accrued by 5.51 per cent, according to information from CAMS and C3S. In December 2024, they reached 422 parts per cardinal (ppm).

During nan aforesaid period, methane concentrations accrued by 4.86 per cent, reaching 1,897 parts per cardinal (ppb) successful December 2024.

“From aerial pollutants to greenhouse state concentrations, our ambiance is possibly nan astir nonstop and contiguous parameter of each action we take,” explains Laurence Rouil, head of nan Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.

“Over nan past decade, CO2 concentrations person risen complete 5 per cent, reaching their highest yearly levels ever recorded.”

Rouil says that, though fossil substance emissions accounted for almost 75 per cent of full c emissions successful 2024, wildfires besides released much than 1,300 megatonnes of c successful 2025 and immense amounts of particulate matter, which degrades aerial value and has a harmful effect connected quality health.

Extreme power has go much likely

Extreme power has already go much apt since 2015, according to a abstracted associated report from Climate Central and World Weather Attribution.

On average, countries astir nan world person knowledgeable 11 much basking days per twelvemonth during nan past decade than they did successful nan decade earlier nan Paris Agreement.

The study looked astatine 1 peculiarly impactful utmost power arena from each of nan six awesome continents arsenic lawsuit studies.

Three of nan six heatwave events they studied would person been astir intolerable without ambiance alteration - including nan record-breaking 2023 heatwave successful Southern Europe - and 2 were astir 10 times much apt to hap successful 2025 than successful 2015.

A weeklong heatwave for illustration nan 1 successful Southern Europe successful 2023 is now 70 per cent much apt and 0.6°C hotter than it would person been a decade ago. Events for illustration this were astir intolerable successful a pre-industrial climate, according to nan report.