Troubled waters: Why is a Nile dam causing such tension?

When nan Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed opened nan immense Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam successful nan country’s westbound connected 9 September, he did not mince his words.

“This reservoir has brought pinch it a wealthiness greater than Ethiopia's GDP. This procreation has accomplished a awesome deed pinch nan Renaissance Dam. The era of begging has ended,” he told a group of assembled officials, media and immoderate location leaders.

Behind him, sheets of h2o poured complete nan actual from nan reservoir behind, which holds almost 74 cardinal cubic metres of h2o complete a aboveground area astir nan size of Greater London.

The premier curate went connected to telephone nan mega dam, which is expected to nutrient location betwixt 5,000 and 6,000 megawatts of electricity, a “shared opportunity” for nan region.

Notably absent from nan pageantry, however, were representatives of nan 2 countries downstream, Sudan and Egypt.

Just a period aft nan opening, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi told nan Cairo Water Week convention that Egypt “will not guidelines idly by” what he labelled Ethiopia’s “irresponsible” actions.

However, nan mobility of Nile h2o distribution has been a negotiated bony of contention for years earlier nan reservoir was moreover conceived of, fto unsocial erstwhile building began successful 2011.

Historical precedent

“There person been aggregate agreements connected nan Nile, and Ethiopia keeps breaking them,” professor of earth science and h2o resources astatine Cairo University and a salient professional of nan GERD Abbas Sharaky told Euronews.

As overmuch arsenic 85% of nan Nile waters that converge successful Khartoum person flowed from nan highlands of Ethiopia, successful nan alleged Blue Nile branch, contempt its estimation for a muddier, siltier quality than nan different White Nile branch flowing from nan Rift Valley.

It is for this logic that h2o diplomacy complete nan stream has much often focused connected Ethiopia’s control.

When nan first awesome reservoir was built successful 1902 astatine Aswan during nan play of British colonisation, nan UK besides signed an statement pinch Ethiopia connected behalf of its colonies that gave nan erstwhile veto powers connected immoderate building upstream “which would apprehension nan travel of their waters into nan Nile.”

Subsequent treaties successful 1929 and 1959 are seen to person heavy favoured a larger, much powerful Egypt, yet granting it an allocation of 55.6 cardinal cubic metres, aliases 66% of nan flow.

Egyptian world and expert Ahmed Morsey told Euronews that this stood for a agelong clip because “there had been this knowing by nan Egyptians, and to immoderate grade nan Sudanese, moreover by immoderate of nan erstwhile Ethiopian leaders, that these older arrangements were present to stay.”

The visiting chap astatine nan Middle East Council connected Global Affairs said building of nan GERD was nan first clip these treaties, which had agelong governed nan waters, were really thrown into question.

His Ethiopian workfellow Tsedenya Girmay explained that this was not ever nan case, pointing to a 2015 declaration of principles that aimed to extremity nan long-running dispute, truthful that “Ethiopia would proceed pinch nan dam, but successful a manner that wouldn’t origin harm to nan downstream countries”.

“But past home issues had an effect connected nan nonaccomplishment of negotiated efforts,” Tsedenya said.

Not conscionable a home issue

In Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, overmuch has changed since nan 2015 deal. Only 1 of nan 3 leaders who signed nan 2015 declaration, Egypt's al-Sisi, remains successful power. As authorities successful Addis Ababa and Cairo person slipped into greater authoritarianism, Sudan has suffered a full-blown civilian war.

The rumor of nan reservoir has go arsenic overmuch a home governmental shot of nationalist unity arsenic a cross–border dispute.

Tsedenya precocious travelled to nan Ethiopian capital, wherever she said this was much prevalent than ever.

“I said to group from nan Foreign Ministry, and it does look to beryllium nan 1 point that’s unifying and driving immoderate argumentation we have. The reservoir itself is nan only point that is unifying us,” she told Euronews, noting soul strife successful nan African country, including nan devastating conflict successful Tigray.

According to Tsedenya, nan centrality of nan reservoir successful nan Ethiopian schoolhouse program is grounds of its position arsenic a nationalist rallying cry, particularly successful a state wherever almost 60 cardinal group deficiency entree to electricity.

In Egypt, Prof Sharaky besides told Euronews that nan Nile represented “life” for a burgeoning organization of complete 115 cardinal people, 95% of whom are packed into nan 5% of nan onshore on nan river.

It was for this logic that it is seen arsenic specified an existential threat to nan mostly desert-covered country, pinch al-Sisi informing successful 2021 that “no 1 tin return a azygous driblet of h2o from Egypt.”

Despite US President Donald Trump suggesting that Egypt could "blow up" nan reservoir successful 2020, Sisi has ever contended that he was wished to resoluteness nan rumor done negotiated means.

Yet, a erstwhile elder US charismatic who mediated connected nan GERD during nan Biden administration, who said nether nan information of anonymity arsenic they still activity successful nan region, laid overmuch of nan blasted for nan breakdown successful negotiations astatine Egypt’s door.

“What we concluded … is that successful nan end, nan Egyptians really didn't want a deal. Like, location was nary woody connected nan array that would fulfill them,” they said, admitting that Ethiopia besides “weren’t going to make a woody easy.”

They told Euronews that “al-Sisi really benefits from this threat of an outer enemy, a home governmental matter,” particularly arsenic Egypt’s system has been faltering and nan organization faces higher prices, notably aft basal wheat imports skyrocketed pursuing Russia’s full-scale penetration of Ukraine.

Ethiopia has besides accused Egypt of interfering successful its home politics. Morsy dismissed this arsenic Addis Ababa trashing Egypt for home gain, saying nan claims were “without immoderate evidence. I almost wish that Egypt had this powerfulness to spot if it tin really do immoderate of this.”

Sudanese activistic and expert Kholood Khair besides suggested that nan civilian warfare successful Sudan had pushed nan de facto authorities and nan Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) person to Cairo and its position connected nan dam.

Khair runs a Sudan-focused deliberation vessel that was based successful Khartoum until nan war. She contends that “opposing nan GERD became overmuch much of a conveyance to get greater Egyptian support than it had thing to do pinch nan GERD itself”, saying that pre-war authorities saw a anticipation of nan task being “good for Sudan,” owed to promises by Ethiopia to stock nan energy produced pinch Khartoum.

However, erstwhile SAF leader Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan met pinch al-Sisi successful Cairo connected 15 October, successful nan aftermath of flooding successful Sudan and Egypt, overmuch of nan blasted was apportioned to nan GERD, a declare Ethiopia vehemently denies. The 2 discussed an progressively coordinated position regarding nan dam.

Is Brussels invested successful nan Nile?

Brussels seems to person fallen progressively into Cairo’s orbit complete nan GERD. When nan EU welcomed al-Sisi pinch unfastened arms to a high-profile acme successful nan Belgian superior successful October, it released a associated connection expressing its desire for early cooperation.

Tucked successful towards nan end, nan connection highlighted that “the EU reiterates its support to Egypt's h2o information and nan compliance pinch world law, including concerning nan Ethiopian Dam.”

Corrado Čok of nan European Council connected Foreign Relations based on that this marks a displacement successful EU policy, which utilized to “keep a balanced position betwixt Egypt and Ethiopia …centred connected de-politicising nan rumor by fostering a method approach.”

This included “diplomatically, technically and financially” supporting independent investigation panels connected nan dam’s impacts.

Čok sees reasoning for nan argumentation pivot arsenic two-fold, noting first nan devastating warfare successful Tigray betwixt 2020 and 2022, for which nan authorities successful Addis Ababa was roundly condemned.

“The disagreements complete Ethiopia’s behaviour successful nan warfare prompted nan EU to suspend assistance programmes and, eventually, besides nan speech connected nan GERD faltered,” he explained.

Conversely, nan bloc is becoming progressively reliant connected Egypt. “Cairo is becoming a salient partner for aggregate reasons, specified arsenic addressing nan wars successful Gaza, Sudan and Libya, underpinning Europe’s power information done earthy state and renewables and containing migration flows,” Čok argued.

According to him, this meant nan EU had travel to “accept” Egypt’s demands for negotiated support connected nan dam.

It is not conscionable Brussels that Cairo has targeted. The erstwhile US diplomat based on that al-Sisi had besides utilized nan rumor arsenic a bargaining spot pinch Washington. “It helps him pinch nan United States, because it's a intends of deflection," they said.

"The US will travel and say, ‘stop doing X pinch nan Russians,’ and he'll say, ‘I would emotion to do that, but I can't do it unless you thief maine pinch this existential threat of nan GERD.’”

Yet, pinch nan reservoir now built and successful use, each sides find themselves successful a governmental stalemate. Morsy concluded that Egypt will “just person to woody pinch it,” until nan adversaries tin work together to manus complete argumentation power to technocrats.

Even Prof Sharaky was amenable to nan idea, but he doubted its likelihood, pinch moreover nan mediators tending towards a much partisan approach.

“I would speak to different colleagues and geologists successful Ethiopia. I conscionable don’t deliberation they’d springiness maine nan visa,” he laughed earlier ringing off.

Euronews has reached retired to nan Egyptian overseas ministry for comment.