Warsaw and Washington: A gamechanging relationship in Sunday's presidential runoff?

New information from nan Polish investigation agency nan Centre for Public Opinion Research (CBOS) shows that Poles clasp nan astir antagonistic position of their narration pinch nan United States since nan autumn of communism.

However, contempt nan negativity, location is nary uncertainty that nan US is basal to some Polish and European security.

Some, including nan Law and Justice (PiS) backed statesmanlike campaigner Karol Nawrocki, reason that Poland "needs nan certainty that a early president will attraction astir Polish-American relations".

Likewise, Rafał Trzaskowski, nan Civic Platform (PO) candidate, said that Poland should "strive for nan closest imaginable practice betwixt nan United States, nan European Union and Poland, because together we are a power."

But tin nan narration pinch Washington person a tangible effect connected nan predetermination results?

Relations pinch nan United States person go 1 of nan cardinal themes of nan statesmanlike campaign.

With nan ongoing warfare successful Ukraine and information issues on nan separator pinch Belarus, nan 2 remaining candidates successful nan title ran their campaigns connected nan premise that they would beryllium nan ones to guarantee nan closest imaginable transatlantic cooperation.

During a parade to people nan day of nan Polish Constitution, blimpish statesmanlike campaigner Karol Nawrocki met pinch nan Polish organization successful Chicago to observe nan vacation and definitive his support for maintaining adjacent ties betwixt nan 2 countries.

The erstwhile day, Nawrocki was received successful nan Oval Office by US President Donald Trump, aft attending an arena to people nan National Day of Prayer.

In an question and reply pinch Republic TV, Nawrocki said that Trump apparently told him, "you will win".

"You tin see... it is clear from this speech that this narration is important for President Trump," he added.

Several elder Law and Justice officials, including statement president Jaroslaw Kaczynski, expressed their support for Nawrocki and hailed his gathering pinch Trump arsenic a success.

"Karol Nawrocki is nan only campaigner who tin guarantee Poland's information and support beardown alliances successful difficult times, particularly pinch nan US," wrote Elżbieta Witek, erstwhile speaker of parliament, successful a station connected X.

However, not everyone was truthful supportive of Nawrocki's visit.

"The effort by Trump's team, which is friends pinch Putin, to power nan statesmanlike predetermination successful Poland shows their assemblage cognition towards Poland," wrote MP Roman Giertych connected societal media.

US a guarantor of lasting peace?

Many blimpish politicians successful Poland person welcomed Trump's policies, contempt nan US president's clashes pinch Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

"Without nan Americans, it is difficult to ideate a lasting peace, and yet we each strive for it," Morawiecki said successful an question and reply pinch Euronews successful March.

"Without American support we successful Europe would not person been capable to support bid for decades."

Current Polish President Andrzej Duda expressed akin sentiments.

"Today my conclusion is perfectly unequivocal, location is nary 1 but nan United States who tin extremity Putin," he told Euronews.

"That is why I judge that President Donald Trump, done his determination, tin extremity this war," he added.

Duda was nan first world leader to sojourn Donald Trump astatine nan White House aft his inauguration successful January.

Ambiguous opinions connected nan US

Most Poles recognise nan subject mightiness of nan US, starring galore to admit nan strategical narration betwixt nan 2 countries.

A study conducted successful March for nan Polish play mag Polityka recovered that 85% of respondents recognised US powerfulness arsenic a subject beingness connected a world scale.

But astatine nan aforesaid time, nan percent of Poles who opportunity nan US has a affirmative effect connected nan world is falling.

In a study conducted by CBOS successful April 2025, only 20% of respondents said nan US had a affirmative power connected world politics, nan lowest recorded consequence since nan agency began measuring opinions successful 2006.

Data from nan aforesaid study besides shows that only 31% cent of Poles would complaint Polish-US relations arsenic "good," different all-time low.

Model NATO ally

Key figures from nan Trump management person praised Poland's policies, including nan country's committedness to information spending and a tougher migration policy.

In February, US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth described Poland arsenic a "model NATO ally" aft a gathering pinch his Polish counterpart Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.

In turn, Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed akin sentiments successful a statement.

"Poland and nan United States guidelines together arsenic partners successful building a safer and much prosperous early for our peoples," he wrote.

"We look guardant to further strengthening our practice connected power security."

Distance from Trump

Representatives of Poland's governing coalition, including Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, person successful nan past openly criticised nan Trump administration.

"Europe is fresh to look Russia without nan support of nan US, and Poland is stepping up its efforts for nan information of nan Baltic Sea," Sikorski said successful an question and reply pinch nan Swedish regular Svenska Dagbladet.

In an question and reply pinch TVN24, Tusk admitted that Trump is "a overmuch much difficult partner than immoderate US president before."

Despite these captious voices, connected nan run way Trzaskowski expressed nan desire to activity pinch nan United States arsenic a cardinal partner. He emphasised economical and information practice betwixt nan 2 countries, particularly successful nan look of Trump's sweeping tariffs.

"Your beingness successful our state confirms American information guarantees for Poland. The truth that you are investing here, contempt nan warfare crossed our eastbound border, is impervious that Poland is safe and stable," he said successful March during a gathering pinch entrepreneurs affiliated pinch nan American Chamber of Commerce successful Poland (AmCham).

"American entrepreneurs were successful Poland overmuch earlier than US troops," he added.

Regardless of nan predetermination result, US defence experts are convinced that Poland will play a cardinal domiciled successful keeping nan bid successful Europe.

"Poland is already doing a batch successful position of defence, but I deliberation location will still beryllium a batch of activity to beryllium done, and Poland tin play a starring domiciled arsenic a cardinal state connected nan beforehand statement wherever location is nan top threat to nan confederation from nan Russian Federation," Rebeccah Heinrichs, a elder expert astatine nan Hudson Institute and head of nan Keystone Defence Initiative, said.